Free Super Bowl XXXIX Picks

I got 1 out of 2 last week, which shows up as 50% but in all actuality I failed to get back on track. Old Lucky is 124-124-8 for the season and it all comes down to the Super Bowl to determine plus or minus for my year. There will not be a tie! The Steelers' dream season came to a red, white, and blue halt, ruining my dream for an all Pennsylvania Sunday in Jacksonville. But maybe this is better. Philly will do their best to make it a mostly Philly Sunday, and the reluctant Patriots, the studs of the last 4 years, will be at their best, heavily favored, trying to make it three out of four. All bets aside, I'm really excited to sit down at the Club House and watch this game on the big screen. Here's to cheese dip, bratwursts, steaks, chips, friends and family, and some way overpriced commercials.

Patriots vs. Eagles(+7)

The Numbers:
Patriots: 15-2. Offensively: Yards Per Game - 358(7th), Rushing Per/Game - 133(7th), Passing Per/Game - 224(11th). Leaders; Passing - Tom Brady 3692 yds, 28TDs/14INTs. Rushing-Corey Dillon 1635 yds, 12TDs. Receiving - David Givens 56 REC 874 yds, 3TDs - David Patten 44 REC 800 yds, 7TDs - Deion Branch 35 REC 454 yds, 4TDs - Daniel Graham 30 REC, 364 yds, 7TDs. Team Defense: Rush Yds/Game 98.3(6th), Pass Yds/Game-212.5(17th), Total Yds/Game 310.8(9th).

Eagles: 14-3. Offensively: Yards Per/Game - 351(9th). Rushing Per/Game - 102(24th) Pass Yards Per/Game - 248(7th). Leaders; Passing - Donovan McNabb yds, 3875 31TDs/8INTs. Rushing - Brian Westbrook 812yds, 3TDs - Dorsey Levens 410yds, 4TDs. Receiving - Terrell Owens 77 REC, 1200yds, 14TDs - Brian Westbrook 73 REC, 703yds, 6TDs - Todd Pinkston 36 REC 676yds, 1TD - L.J. Smith 34 REC, 377yds, 5TDs - Freddie Mitchell 22 REC, 377yds, 2TDs. Team Defense: Rush Yds/Game 119(16th), Pass Yds/Game 201(12th), Total Yds/Game 320(10th).

Beyond The Numbers:
Though I was hoping for better games last weekend, it's nice to see a match-up between two teams that absolutely dominated their opponents throughout the playoffs. The Patriots, favored by 7, put a muzzle on Manning and the Colts, and beat the 16 win Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Eagles put it to the Vikings, who had just beat the Packers in Green Bay, and then destroyed the Falcons who rolled the Rams. So, the best teams played the best throughout, and now they meet. Can't argue with that. Tom Brady is unbeaten in the playoffs. That's amazing, considering he's gong for his 3rd Super Bowl in less than 4 years of being a starter. Donovan McNabb hasn't played a single Super Bowl yet, but his playoff record is pretty good considering. But, who really cares how many games some guy has won in a row, or how great of a season the other guy is having? Who cares that these teams combined for a 27-5 regular season, and each dominated their opponents during the playoffs. This is one game, on one Sunday in February, and the best team that day will end up with some nice expensive rings and a summer off realizing they were that one playoff team that ended their season with a win. Everyone has said that the Patriots have looked unbeatable. I say, hence they are here. But what about the Eagles? Have they looked beatable? Maybe it was that nail-biter against Atlanta, or that close win versus Minnesota. Honestly. Both have been great. It's going to be tough to beat Vinatieri's Super Bowl field goal game winner last year, or the one-yard-short Titans-Rams finale, but if everything aligns right, this game has potential for greatness. Neither team lacks confidence. Each team is very different. Each team was levels above their opponents. Will one team be levels above the other come Sunday the 6th? I sure hope not.

THE BET:
Disclaimer: The Patriots have played way better than I ever expected. I knew Dillon would have an impact, but the way he changed the Patriots is amazing. The Patriots have whooped my butt all year, and might just deserve those 7 points they are supposed to win by. So here it is, the cold hard truth of the matter; I can't bet on the Patriots now. If I'm going to go out a loser, it might as well be against the team that stuck it to me all year. I can't fight my gut on this one. I'm taking the Eagles to win at +215. It's either my want-to playing tricks on me or I'm actually crazy enough to see the Eagles upsetting the defending champs. All signs point to crazy. The Patriots have been awesome for two straight years. They have won under all circumstances, been here before... twice. They have a great group of guys who've been there since the first win. They have a fearless leader who has yet to lose, and a running back that's played like a Hall-Of-Famer this year. Their coach might very well go down as one of the best of all time, and they know how to win, really, really well. But like I said, this is one Sunday, and on this Sunday, like every other Sunday, any little piece of past or future is transparent. I love McNabb's confidence. The kid has grown up into a great quarterback. Everyone talks about how Manning and Culpepper each had great years, but Donovan was no slouch. He tossed 31 touchdowns with only 8 interceptions, while completing his highest percentage of his career. More importantly he joked around and had fun every week, and has the same attitude this weekend. That's what's impressed me about the Eagles. They've been the same team since mini-camp. TO has had something to say every week, Donovan's laughed it off, and the defense has done what they needed to do. They seem like the team that's been here before. The Patriots won't get by on a mind-screw like they did with Peyton Manning. They won't get by on the butterflies of a rookie quarterback like they did with Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship. They are going to get stuck with McNabb. His confidence will show the holes in the New England secondary. New England's a great team, but if I had to put my money on one team, one coach, and one quarterback who I'd take over the Patriots… that team would be the Eagles, the coach would be Andy Reid, and the laid back leader would be Donovan McNabb. Oh yeah, I'd take Brian Dawkins, too. He's just too damn good. Any great game has to have a winner; I've got my money on the Eagles.
Eagles 34 - Patriots 28 - Game Date: 02/06/05 16:30 ET

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Thanks for a great year,
Lucky Lester

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