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Lucky
Lester here, hoping to hold true to my name this week.
The last few weeks have been a little questionable,
but my overall record remains strong, especially for
picking every game, every week. Last week Lucky went
5-8-1 bring his record for the year to 51-45-5.
This week is full of tough match-ups, big spreads, and
make it or break it games. But I'm bound to improve
my fate in a rather interesting week eight.
It's time to lay my best picks out on the line once
again so they're back...
SUPER
PICKS
Packers(-2)
@ Redskins - I've got to take Brett Favre and his Packers
for the second week in a row. Although Brett's mind
might be on his wife's health, he seems to do best when
his emotions are high. Brett is one of my favorite players
ever. His poise, his ability to have fun on the field,
to seemingly effortlessly lead a team to victory; all
these admirable qualities make it impossible not to
respect the guy. Brett is back on his game; he has led
his team to two straight easy victories, and will continue
against a Redskins team that barely beat a Bear's team
quarterbacked by Jonathan Quinn. Clinton Portis should
have a good night, and keep his team in the game, but
the Packers need to make up for early losses at home
and take a few on the road. This game in Washington
is a perfect time to get one back. Ahman Green looked
like his old self against Dallas last week, and will
test a pretty good Redskins defense. Take the Packers
and the best signal caller for the past ten years.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Cardinals(+3)
@ Bills - The Cardinals did one of two things last week.
They either beat a pretty damn good Seahawks team that
is struggling, or beat a much-overrated Seahawk team
that had just been ranked too high from the get go.
Lucky's got to go for the first one. The Cardinals have
been a feisty crew all year long, and surprisingly their
defense has been stellar. Emmitt Smith has looked pretty
good, especially for a washed up, should've retired
years ago, left for dead by the Cowboys and Bill Parcels,
running back that led his team to victory last week.
I love seeing former Cowboys do good for other teams,
and this guy who was the Star in the Dallas logo for
so many years, has me jumping for joy, no matter how
much he's making me lose (see last weeks pick). Anquan
Boldin looks like he's returning this week, but that
shouldn't matter. Buffalo is a poor team, and didn't
even look good in their only win of the season. The
kicker, well the Cardinals are getting three points.
Here's to Dennis Green and his fine return to coaching...
Cheers! Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
49ers(+1.5)
@ Bears - The Bears aren't good, not at all. They can't
be satisfied with Craig Krenzel leading their already
struggling offensive unit. Sure, Thomas Jones has been
a pleasant surprise, but I don't think he can run for
big yards against nine guys in the box. The 49ers will
play single coverage all day against Chicago, challenging
Krenzel to beat them through the air. Although Craig
would love to oblige, he just doesn't have that ability
yet. The Niners should look to give the ball to Kevan
Barlow early and often. His numbers haven't been what
they were projected to be, but, he'll improve this week.
Tim Rattay is a much better option at quarterback, so
now everything points to the Niners. I think they are,
for the first time this year, a damn good bet.
Game Date: 10/31/04 20:35 ET
Jaguars(+1)
@ Texans - I mean, I like the Texans as much as the
next guy, probably more, since they take fans away from
the Cowboys, but (-1) against a 5-2 Jaguars team that
just beat the Colts in Indianapolis, are you kidding
me? Byron Leftwhich will continue his 300 plus yard
game streak in this one, and although David Carr will
give the Texans a chance, Leftwhich will prevail. The
Jags are just a more complete team. Their defense is
tough as nails, their offense has really come together
over the last few weeks, and they're 5-2. I usually
take the Texans, but not this week, not against a team
as confident as the Jaguars. Look for running back Fred
Taylor to finally break out of his slump this week.
He just had 100 plus yards against the Colts, but I
see a couple touchdowns in his immediate future.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Lions(+3)
@ Cowboys - Can't hate the Boys if they're winning me
money on a weekly basis right? Wrong! These Cowboys
are making me love watching them play. Between my new
least favorite player Keyshawn Johnson's bickering and
Bill Parcels ridiculous facial expressions, I can't
figure out what I like watching more, the actual game
or the sidelines. And there's always those Cowboy cheerleaders.
The Cowboys have been just what I predicted, a team
that was very overrated, and a team that obviously overachieved
last year. You can say what you want about the Quincy
Carter incident or the Antonio Bryant stuff, but all
in all, the Cowboys aren't that good, or even good at
all. They struggle every week and now their defense
is getting picked on... oh yes, it's all coming together
quite nicely. Well, all that said, the upstart 4-2 Lions
come to town this week, and Roy Williams will be back
in his old stomping grounds for the first time as a
pro. Think he'll be excited? I'm willing to bet on it.
In fact, I might just take the Lions to win this one.
All or nothing as I always say. Game Date: 10/31/04
13:00 ET
Lucky
Lester's Picks For Week Eight
Giants
@ Vikings(-6.5) - The way I see it, if the Vikings
are favored by less than a touchdown you should always
take them against a lesser team. And the Giants are
a lesser team. Amazing Tiki Barber continued his offensive
rampage last week in a big loss to the Detroit Lions,
but it wasn't enough. Last week Kurt Warner looked more
like the guy who played behind Marc Bulger than the
guy who started this year. I'm not saying Kurt's washed
up, but he's not better than Daunte Culpepper, and really
isn't even close. The defenses are about equal, and
although the Giants have an edge in the running game,
Rookie Mewelde Moore has been a godsend for the Vikings.
This will be a close one, high scoring and as offensive
as your average Vikings game, but take the Vikings to
win by at least 7. Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Bengals(+3)
@ Titans - The Bengals showed that they are better than
the 1-4 record they had before handing it to the Broncos
last week. I'm not imagining for a second that they
are going to consistently kick the backsides of teams
like Denver every week, but the Titans are not a team
like Denver, especially with a questionable Steve McNair.
The entire Titan team seems to be on the questionable
list every week, and even if the players do play, they're
not 100%. Rudi Johnson and Chad Johnson looked like
they got the idea last week, and I only see them continuing
the show against a banged up Tennessee squad. Carson
Palmer might be getting a little too much credit for
his performance against the Broncos, but his confidence
to go at Champ Bailey says a lot to me about his game.
Take the Bengals. Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Colts(-1)
@ Chiefs - Last week I said I was betting on the Chiefs
as if they were a mirror replica of last years 13-3
team. Well, they turned out to be exactly that, if not
better against a decent Falcon team. Mike Vick couldn't
do jack against the Chiefs D which even I couldn't have
imagined. But all this said, the Chiefs aren't the same
team they were last year. They aren't as consistent
and will show that this week against one of the most
consistent players in the game, Peyton Manning, and
Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison for that matter.
Sure, the Colts defense could challenge the Chiefs defense
to see who's more questionable, but the Colts are just
a better team. I don't like Indianapolis being favored
in this game, but one point is one point, and in situations
like this you have to take the team you think will win
the battle. Manning will find it easy to toss touchdowns
to Mr. Harrison this weak, and win a big time game in
Kansas City. Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Falcons(+6.5)
@ Denver - This games got me vexed. I don't know which
way to go; I don't even know where to begin. So, I'll
start where football starts, defense. I know the Falcons
have just recently been whipped, but they have a solid
defense. Denver also just got pummeled by a 1-4 Bengals
team, but they also have a good defense. I have to give
Denver a slight advantage here, but not as big as people
might think. Offensively both teams looked stagnant
at best, with Vick and the Falcons being a little worse.
They could only manage 10 points against the Chiefs.
But, the Broncos couldn't do anything against the leagues
worst rushing defense. I'll have to give the Broncos
another, very slight, advantage. Now the intangibles,
the little things, and the stuff I call Swagger. Vick
always has swagger, and a little thing I like to call
cushioning... also known as (+6.5). Denver also has
a large amount of close victories. So, the intangibles
have to go to the Falcons. Denver seems to squeak out
their victories for the most part, and if they do win
in Mile High, I don't see it being by much. I always
rank intangibles very high, realizing that the mental
part of the game is larger. Translation: take the team
with the points in this one.
Game Date: 10/31/04 16:05 ET
Panthers
@ Seahawks(-8) - Eight is a bunch for a team
that just went down at the hands of an Arizona team
that is feisty at best . But the Panthers really haven't
been anything greater then bottom feeders either. For
two slumping teams, the Seahawks are definitely the
better of the two. Matt Hasselbeck will actually come
to play this week, pull his head out of his backside,
and find his stellar offensive teammates for a bunch
of scores against a defense that can only imagine what
they use to be. Shaun Alexander should run for three
times the yards he had last week, and if Hasselbeck
throws half as many touchdowns as he did interceptions
against Arizona, the Hawks should win easily at home.
I'm still a strong believer in the Hawks and their playoff
and Super Bowl aspirations, but they need to step up
and blow out an injured Panther team. This, I believe,
they will do on Sunday. Game Date: 10/31/04 16:05
ET
Ravens
@ Eagles(+7.5) - It's real hard for me to take
a team favored by more than a touchdown against a defense
led by Ray Lewis. But that same defense has to be off
the field while the Baltimore offense has the ball.
That offense is anything but productive especially with
Jamal Lewis suspended for one more game. Chester Taylor
looked okay last week, but Boller still didn't even
break 100 yards... and he played the whole game. The
Eagles didn't look so dominant either, but were still
good enough to be one of the two undefeated teams going
into week 8. McNabb has been wonderful since Terrell
Owens made himself an Eagle. Brian Westbrook is most
likely out this week as well, so it seems the odds are
stacking against an Eagle victory. But, Philadelphia
will find a way this week, and smother a lackluster
Raven offense. Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Patriots
@ Steelers(+3) - My more sensible half tells
me to take the undefeated, 20 plus game win streaking,
best team in the league, Patriots. But, who likes to
listen to him, when a chance to call a huge upset is
on the line. Don't get me wrong, taking the Patriots
looks like a good bet. They are only favored by 3 and
against a Steeler team that hasn't got the respect they've
deserved yet this year. But, mark my words; the Steelers
and rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger are for real.
One might think that Belichick would have his way with
the rookie, but I think this makes the Coach's job a
little tougher. Big Ben hasn't had to many games to
show the Patriots his tendencies, and on that note,
his rookie status will help Pittsburgh. The Patriots
always seem to play to the level of their opponents
and that's bound to bite them in the butt sooner or
later. I'm just betting that it happens in week 8. I
hate to listen to my crazy and cocky side but... wait
a second; I love listening to that side, what am I thinking?
I've got to take The Steel Crew in this game, showing
that New England is in fact mortal. Game Date: 10/31/04
16:15 ET
Raiders
@ Chargers(-6) - Drew Brees has to get some respect
from me. He has done so well and until this point all
I've been doing is taking him to fail. I forgot he was
a great field general in college, and he's still growing
as a football player. The Raiders are terrible, and
even lost to the Saints at home. Their offense looked
better last week, but whose offense doesn't seem powerful
against New Orleans? The Chargers are doing well listening
to Marty Schottenheimer. This Monday LaDainian Tomlinson
said he is as healthy as he's felt in three weeks. So,
things look good for a decent Chargers team against
a poor Raiders team. Even with Sapp and Ted Washington,
the Raiders can't stop a running back. Keenan McCardell
gives the Chargers a much-needed boost at receiver,
and in his second week he'll be looking to hook up with
Brees for a TD or two. The underrated Chargers secondary
should put a stop to the idea that the Raiders are an
explosive offense. Game Date: 10/31/04 16:15 ET
Miami
@ Jets(-6.5) - I'll take this bet in the blink
of an eye. The Dolphins win one game and now they aren't
even 7-point underdogs in New York against one of the
best teams in football? Wow! The Jets showed me last
week that they could play with any team in this league,
especially the one-week wonder Miami squad. Jay Fiedler
isn't consistent; in fact he actually is consistent,
consistently bad! He had one decent week and still it
wasn't all that good. Coach Herm Edwards won't let his
Jets overlook the Dolphins or get down about a loss
to the Patriots last week. He'll have them fired up
and ready to improve their record. The Jets still could
walk away from this one tied for the best record in
the NFL. Give the ball to Curtis, the Phins can't stop
him.
Game Date: 11/01/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
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Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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