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Lucky
Lester here with my Week 3 predictions for the NFL.
All in all it was a pretty good week last week and once
again you can read
my review of how the week played out against my
picks.
SUPER
PICKS
I'm
taking 5 teams this week, they just look like good bets,
and so I've got to take them.
Texans (+7.5) @ Chiefs: Which heartbreaker should
I choose? I guess I'll give the Texans another chance
to break my heart. And if they do, it'll be the third
time in as many weeks. I'll bet that the Chief's terrible
defensive unit will struggle again against one of the
leagues top-notch young running backs, Dominic Davis.
Staying focused on trying to stop the run, the Chiefs
will give David Carr room to take advantage of their
secondary that has yet to stop someone this year. Priest
Holmes is questionable, and if he doesn't play then
this bet gets a lot better. Holmes has been all of the
Chiefs offense this year, and if he doesn't play, Dick
Vermeil and his offensive coordinator will be searching
far and wide for some help, but they wont find it. With
all this in mind, and the fact that their 0-2 and giving
up over 7 points, I've got to bet against the Chiefs
for the first time this year! Game Date: 09/26/04
13:00 ET
Eagles
(-4.5) @ Detroit: I've got to take the most impressive
team this season over the most surprising. The Eagles
have looked unbeatable early this year and will continue
to look so in week three. The Lions, led by Joey Harrington
and rookie wide receiver Roy Williams, will put up a
fight, but not enough points to cover against a superior
Eagles squad booming with confidence after their big
win against the Vikings on Monday Night. Javon Kearse
and the rest of the Eagles defense will get to Harrington
often and halt any movement the Lions have going. McNabb
will take advantage of double teams on Terrell Owens
and get the ball to LJ Smith, Freddie Mitchell, and
Todd Pinkston. Running back Brian Westbrook will keep
the ball in Philly's possession for much of the game.
The Eagles are a good bet at only a 4.5 point favorite.
Game Date: 09/26/04 13:00 ET
Ravens
@ Bengals (+3): I'll take the Bengals at home
against the Ravens showing how much things have changed
since Marvin Lewis took over in Cincinnati. The Bengals
have looked good this year, and the Carson Palmer move
looks to be paying off. I hate to bet against Ray Lewis,
and no one tell him I am, but the Ravens offense is
going to be looking for anyone to throw the ball to.
Todd Heap, by far the team's biggest receiving threat,
is out, as is Travis Taylor, their fastest receiver.
Not to mention, when those two guys were playing, Kyle
Boller couldn't find a way to get the ball to either
of them. Cincinnati, knowing these things better then
yours truly, will stack the box with as many as nine
defensive players, leaving Jamal Lewis little room to
run. I expect the Bengals to win outright. The three
points they're getting is just icing on the cake.
Game Date: 09/26/04 13:00 ET
Bears
@ Vikings (-9): The Vikings will come out with
a vengeance after their disappointing loss to the Eagles
last Monday. Unfortunately for the Bears, they wont
be able to stop the downpour without Charles Tillman,
Jerry Azumah, and Mike Brown, who will all be out with
injuries this Sunday. Culpepper and Moss will dominate
this game showing that they are the best QB/WR combo
in the NFL. 9 is a big number to give up against a feisty
Bears team, but without 3 of their 4 starting defensive
backs, the Bears will find it impossible to stop an
already great Viking offensive attack. Game Date:
09/26/04 13:00 ET
Jaguars (+6) @ Titans: I had to take this bet because
the Jaguars have looked so tough this year, and the
Titans, well, they've looked mediocre. The Colts secondary
held Steve McNair touchdown-less through the air last
week, and they aren't that good. The Jaguars defense
is stellar, keeping their team in the game each of the
last two weeks. The Jag's have allowed only one touchdown
in two games and they are as confident a defensive unit
as I've seen since the Ravens Super Bowl seasons. Look
for Jacksonville to at least cover and I wouldn't be
surprised if they won in Tennessee.
Game Date: 09/26/04 13:00 ET
Lucky
Lester's Picks For Week Three
Steelers
(+1)
@ Dolphins: Look for low scoring in this one, possibly
an under bet. In the first two games combined the tough
Dolphins defense has given up only one touchdown. The
Steelers D has also been average. The difference between
these two teams is offense. Pittsburgh has one and Miami
doesn't! Miami seriously can't expect a touchdown out
of their offense, so we can't either. Watch Duce Staley,
Hines Ward and company to put just enough points on
the board to take the Dolphins down in Miami.
Game Date: 09/26/04 13:00 ET
Browns
(+3) @ Giants: I will not be watching or paying
an ounce of attention to this ugly match up. Each team
has a good win this season; The Browns took it to the
Ravens in a week one stunner, as The Giants pulled off
a big upset against the Redskins in week two. But neither
team should expect to collect another solid win this
year. One of these teams will be 2-1, and I'm guessing
they'll be the worst 2-1 team in the NFL. If I had to
pick this one, I'd go with Cleveland. The Giants got
as lucky as Lucky Lester did last week when Washington
turned it over 7 times. Cleveland lost to Dallas by
a mere 5 while being the unlucky ones. So, I've got
to take the Browns and the points in New York. Game
Date: 09/26/04 13:00 ET
Saints
(+7) @ Rams: The Rams haven't shown me that they
deserve 7 points against any team in this league, especially
the talent heavy Saints. Although the Saints will be
without their biggest weapon Deuce McAllister, that's
really a blessing in disguise. Aaron Brooks has always
been more efficient without someone to rely on, and
I'll bet he finally steps up and throws for over 300
yards against a sub par Rams defensive unit. The Rams,
making me feel better about this bet, got destroyed
by Brooks' cousins team last week and barely beat Dennis
Greens young Cardinal team in week one. I'm taking the
Saints and a big 7 points. Game Date: 09/26/04 13:00
ET
Cardinals
(+10) @ Falcons: The Falcons took it to the Rams
last week, and the Rams beat the Cardinals in week 1,
but Lucky Lester knows that's no reason to take a bet,
so in this case, I'll take a feisty Arizona team against
the inconsistent Falcons. Mike Vick can be amazing,
and then again he can be average, just like his team.
This week I'm guessing average. Plus, the Falcons are
giving away 10 whole points, and that's too many. The
Cardinals, although I don't expect them to win, will
never quit under new coach Dennis Green, so I expect
them to cover in Atlanta. This will be the first time
I take the Cardinals all year. They've really impressed
me thus far. Game Date: 09/26/04 13:00 ET
Chargers
@ Broncos (-10): The Broncos lost a tough game
against a hard-nosed Jacksonville team. The relatively
small O-Line of the Broncos was beaten by a much larger
Jacksonville D-Line. The Chargers wont have that ability.
The Broncos will put themselves back on the map with
a big win in Denver against an inferior Chargers team.
The "Special" quarter backing unit in San
Diego was evident last week as Drew Brees imploded and
Doug Flutie came in the fourth quarter. Look for Brees
to do poorly again against a very good Denver defense,
and Phillip Rivers to play in his first regular season
game. The Broncos will love feasting on the rookie,
and will cause turnovers in bundles.
Game Date: 09/26/04 16:05 ET
Packers
(+6) @ Colts: It's hard for me to do this after
the Packers lost to the freaking Bears in Green Bay
last week. Really hard! But I have a hunch, so hear
me out. Brett Favre has yet to play like his Hall Of
Fame self and will breakout of his slump and do so this
week against a mediocre Indianapolis secondary. The
Colts might be without Edgerrin James, and if he does
play he'll be 80-90 percent. Mike McKenzie is back with
the team and in playing shape, so that should help the
Pack. Ahman Green should run all over the Colts defense
that overachieved last week against the Titans. Look
for the Pack to make up the spread in Indianapolis and
redeem themselves from last week's dismal performance.
Game Date: 09/26/04 16:15 ET
49ers
@ Seahawks (-10.5): Even with the 49ers playing
well this year thus far, and the Seahawks giving away
nearly 11 points, teamed with the fact that they looked
average last week against the Bucs, I've got to take
the Hawks in Seattle. They were 8-0 last year at home,
and have yet to explode as an offensive unit this year.
The 49ers have overachieved in the first two weeks,
and will show it in Seattle this Sunday. Ken Dorsey
and Tim Rattay, whomever starts, will be hit hard and
often by a rough and tough Seattle Defense that has
allowed a measly 13 points in two games this year. The
secondary of Trufant, Bierra, Lucas, and Hamlin should
intercept either quarterback multiple times, and the
offense led by Hasselbeck will dominate a 49ers defense
that has looked pretty good. The hawks have covered
both games this year, and I expect them to do it again.
Game Date: 09/26/04 16:15 ET
Buccaneers
@ Raiders (-3): This is just a hunch, but I think
Warren Sapp is more likely to take this whole "playing
your old team that gave up on you" thing a little
more personally than Tim Brown and Charlie Garner. This
said, Sapp should have his defensive unit ready and
roaring against a pitiful Buccaneer offense. The Bucs
wont stand a chance running against a superior defensive
line and Brad Johnson hasn't shown he can pass yet this
year. The Raiders will step up, bringing themselves
to 2-1. Game Date: 09/26/04 20:35 ET
Cowboys
@ Redskins (-1): This Monday Night match up is
exciting, but almost too close to call. The Skins played
horribly last week in New York and the cowboys really
haven't played well yet this year. The Dallas defense
was shredded by the Minnesota passing attack in week
one and their offense was pretty much held at bay against
an average Brown team in week two. Another thing, Lucky
Lester hates the Cowboys! I'm never one to bet against
someone just because I hate them, but in this case,
the game being so close and Washington playing in DC,
I'll have to take the Redskins giving up only 1 point
at home. Clinton Portis will play like he did in week
one and not even Roy Williams will be able to stop him.
Jerry Jones will come down to the field and hopefully
get in a fight with Bill Parcels. I can dream…
Game
Date: 09/27/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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