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Lucky
went 7-7 last week with his picks in as chaotic
an NFL season as I have ever seen. My record for the
year so far is 62-60-5. This week is winning
time and I plan on putting up big numbers to set the
proper trend for the second half of the season.
Lucky
Lester's Picks
Baltimore(-1.5)
@ Jets - The Ravens have looked solid in recent losses
and wins. Jamal Lewis is back, showing his importance
last week by scoring a decisive touchdown in the 4th.
Chad Pennington is out for at least one week. That doesn't
make life easier against the toughest defense in the
land. Quincy Carter, not known for his accuracy, will
find quite the challenge ahead of him this week against
Baltimore. The Jets will rely heavily on Curtis Martin.
The Ravens will force Quincy Carter to win the game
for the Jets. As much as I love to see Ex-Cowboys succeed,
I don't see it happening for Quincy in week 10. Game
Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Detroit(+3)
@ Jacksonville - Byron Leftwhich is out with an injury.
He leaves his Jaguar team in the hands of David Gerrard.
Truly, the games outcome lies at the feet of Fred Taylor.
Detroit will keep all of their attention on Fred. Gerrard
isn't the passing threat Byron is by any means. Joey
Harrington will do his best to find Roy Williams against
the average secondary in Jacksonville. The Jaguar D-Line
will shutdown the Lion's pathetic rushing attack, but
will struggle against Harrington. For the first time
since week three last year, Byron Leftwhich will sit.
This doesn't bode well for a Jaguar team that finds
themselves smack dab in the middle of a tough playoff
race. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Kansas
City (-5) @ New Orleans - I'll take the Chiefs regardless
of the spread, with or without their holy man. Priest
is doubtful, so let's assume he doesn't play. The Saints
continue to be a disappointment, no matter who plays
for them. They have a stud running back in Deuce McAllister,
but he has only stumbled to 100 yards in one game this
year. (102 yards vs Bucs week 5) He is only averaging
a Ron Daynish 3.5 yards per carry, with a long run of,
brace yourself… 16 yards! Aaron Brooks continues
to hold the ball too long and continually make poor
decisions. Donte Stallworth hasn't shown near the promise
of his rookie campaign, and the defense is still horrible.
Kansas City may be without the leagues most feared offensive
player, but Derrick Blaylock has shown he can get the
job done (see Atlanta game log two weeks ago). Not t
hat it matters. The Saints couldn't stop Drew Bledsoe
in an old school Nebraskan option attack. Game Date:
11/14/04 13:00 ET
Seattle
(even) @ St. Louis - Seattle is the better team.
They will come to play in Saint Louis, which will hopefully
be a good sign for Seahawk fans. The Rams are much better
at home, but will stumble this week against Seattle.
The Rams are in the perfect image of Dr. Jekyl and Miss
Hyde. One week they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and
the next week they get kicked around by the powerful
Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins! They are never exciting
to bet for, often leaving you wondering what the hell
happened. Take Seattle here, Shaun Alexander will continue
his superb season, rushing all over an average St. Louis
Defense. Hasselbeck will step up as well. Game Date:
11/14/04 13:00 ET
Cincinnati(+3)
@ Washington - Portis should shellac the Bengals rush
defense, but Brunell and the Skin's horrendous passing
game will end Washington's chances in a hurry. Since
Gibbs came in, the Redskins have been overrated every
week. Each time I see the Redskins spread, I am stunned.
Maybe, I miss all the good things the Redskins do, but
they seem just as bad as their record, if not worse.
The Bengals have looked better of late, feeding the
ball to Rudi Johnson and letting Carson Palmer catch
defenses of guard with the long ball. If they do that
against the Skins, they will win outright.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET
Minnesota
@ Green Bay(-4) - Green Bay always has a hell
of a time stopping Randy Moss. Ask any Packer Die Hard,
and they will tell you how much they hate number 84.
Unfortunately for the Vikings, Randy has been ruled
out for this Sunday's game. Brett Favre should feast
on the Mossless Vikings by leading his Packers to an
old fashioned dominate performance in Lambeu. Daunte
Culpepper has had a tough time without his partner in
crime. Expect more of the same against an average but
maturing Packer secondary. Ahman Green will get the
ball plenty, which is a good sign for Packer fans, and
me. I'm taking Green Bay. Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15
ET
Buffalo(+8)@
New England - 8 points is to many for a game that will
match two of the top defenses in the league. The Patriots
get more credit, because their team is flat out better.
But don't ignore Buffalo. Their young D has been up
to the challenge this year, doing their best to make
up for their poor offense. New England should win this
game, but Buffalo will make it close. It doesn't hurt
that the Patriots often seem to play to the level of
their opponents. Buffalo running back Willis McGahee
has rushed for at least a C-note in every game he has
started. Game Date: 11/14/04 20:35 ET
Chicago
@ Tennessee(even) - Yikes. I've got to take,
Chica... nope can't do it! Krenzel can't win three straight,
it's just not possible. But can I take the Titans lead
by William Volek? Okay, I guess I have to make sacrifices.
I don't want to even hear about this game come Sunday.
But if I have to pick, I'll take Chris Brown's team.
Brown has rushed for over 100 yards in 5 games this
year. (145+ in 3) Brown is averaging an eyelash below
5 yards a carry, doing his best work against poor run
defenses... like The Bears. I can only hope this game
marks the return of Steve McNair, but it's not looking
so good. Take the Titans at home in a game you pray
is not carried in your area!
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Houston(+9)
@ Indianapolis - Two good offenses, one bad defense.
Indianapolis will have a grand spread to dig out of.
Although Houston looked pretty bad against the real
Denver Broncos last week, I think they have a good chance
to win against the Colts. Indianapolis hasn't played
like a 9-point favorite in the last 5 weeks. Last week,
Peyton threw 5 touchdowns, Edgerrin James rushed for
over 120 yards, and The Colts still barely snuck by
a struggling Vikings squad. David Carr will find holes
the size of Texas against a terrible Colt Defense. Carr
also has the option to just hand the ball to his running
back Davis. Either way, the Texans have a decent defense
to match their good offense, making them my upset pick
of the week. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Pittsburgh(-3.5)
@ Cleveland - Wouldn't it be too perfect if the Steelers,
after ruining two perfect seasons, lost to the Browns?
It could happen. But I won't pick it. Steeler D is too
good to bet against, and the Browns? They are up and
down with the best of them. When it comes down to it,
I just think the Steelers are flat out better than either
the Patriots or the Eagles. Everyone can say what they
want about flukes, and David vs. Goliath and all that
business. But Pitt has a very good defense and a rushing
attack that is second to none. I'll take Big Ben to
continue his phenomenal rookie season, leading his team,
and beating the Browns in Cleveland. Game Date: 11/14/04
13:00 ET
Tampa
Bay @ Atlanta(-3.5) - Atlanta should have no
problem. The Bucs won't be able to run this week against
the stout run defense in Atlanta. They won't be able
to throw either. In fact, they won't be able to do any
of the things they did against the Chiefs D last week.
Mike Vick, who looked real good a week ago, looks to
continue his growth in the West Coast Offense. With
two weeks to prepare, the Falcons are my hands down
favorite against the Bucs.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Carolina(even)
@ San Francisco - Carolina. They're bound to win one
sooner or later, so why not against the Niners, who
should not win one ever again. Kevan Barlow could be
the biggest disappointment this year for fantasy buffs.
I don't blame him; he's got defenses breathing down
his throat every snap. With Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey
running the show, he's been hard pressed to find any
room to roam. Carolina is bad, but they still have guys
who remember how to win, giving them a big advantage
in San Francisco.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET
NY
Giants(-2) @ Arizona - The Giants should snap out
of their slump a week after a loss to Chicago. Arizona
hasn't been horrible, but the Giants have a solid playoff
chance, something the Cardinals threw out the window
when Anquan Boldin went down in the preseason. Tiki
Barbar has been amazing, holding on to the ball, and
sprinting to daylight at every opportunity. He should
continue his great season with a couple touchdowns in
Arizona. (I'm secretly wishing for Emmitt Smith to rush
for 300 yards in this one. Couldn't Dallas use him right
now! Ha Ha) Game Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET
Philadelphia(-6.5)
@ Dallas - The Eagles should trounce a Dallas team that
is finally playing down to it's talent level. (3-5)
The Eagles looked like a skeleton of their dominating
selves last week against The Steelers. They will get
back to their roots against a rueful Dallas Defense,
and a generous Offense. On Monday Night Football, I
can see a vision... Dallas looks terrible again; I have
a smile that stretches as far as that stupid gap in
The Cowboy's roof. Bill Parcels is caught crying on
the sidelines... with Jerry Jones giving him a hug...
But in the end, the Cowboys draft pick just gets better
and better. Hopefully they pick a lemon or two. Game
Date: 11/15/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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