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Hello
and welcome. Football season is upon us. Hooray pig
skin! Hooray beer! Hooray Sundays sacked on the sofa!
This is Lucky Lester storming back from a .500 record
a year ago, relaxed and ready for a sophomore performance
that will have us rolling in the money. Last year, week
one was my best single week record, and this year should
be no different. If you weren't here for the 2004-'05
season, this is how it works. Week in and week out I'll
make my picks. I'll give reasons, both personal and
otherwise, that support my decision on each game. I'll
keep a log of what happened each week, and you can always
check out my follow up articles to see how I did. Are
you ready for some big hits? Well, get ready for that
as well as some Lambeau leaps, bulldogs dressed in dresses,
and home team heroics? Once again the odds-makers have
stumbled out of the box, and I'm standing to make a
pretty penny off of their mistakes.
Oakland
(+7.5) @ New England - This is Randy Moss' big day.
The Black and Silver has been calling him since he was
rocking a bong in the dressing room on draft day. That
was the day Al Davis put a little notch in his little
black book. The only thing holding this relationship
back was some run-ins with the local law enforcement,
a premature evacuation from a game, and too much running
of the mouth. Thanks Randy, Al's dream has come true.
Fortunately for Mr. Davis, Moss hasn't only brought
his off the field antics to the Raiders, but comes accompanied
by the greatest receiving ability the NFL has. Oakland
has a buzz about them; you could see it during the preseason.
Kerry Collins finally has someone he can't overthrow,
which should dwindle his interception numbers. Lamont
Jordan should bring a steady rushing attack to a team
that didn't produce a thousand yard back last year.
And don't count out the defense. It wasn't too long
ago that Charles Woodson was one of the best corners
in the league. If he can return to form, and the 600+
pound duo of Ted Washington and Warren Sapp can perform
up to their standards, this team could be scary. As
for the defending champs, they should be up to their
same old tricks. They'll have to be to have a chance
in a tough AFC. They've lost a lot of the coaching staff
genius that helped them win the last two Super Bowls.
They've also lost Teddy Bruschi. Ty Law has joined the
Jets, and I don't think they can do it again. Tom Brady's
a great quarterback and Corey Dillon was everything
the Pats needed in his first year with the team, but
is that enough? Their Heart and Soul, Ted, is out for
the year, and I think it will bring them down. Take
Oakland to get closer than a touchdown, making them
winners in my mind, and more importantly the bookie's.
Game Date: 09/08/05 21:00 ET
Denver
(-5) @ Miami - There is no reason the Bronco's shouldn't
be favored by a couple of touchdowns against a team
that doesn't own a decent college starter. Okay, Gus
Ferotte was pretty good, but AJ Feely, he didn't even
play for the Oregon Ducks. As if that wasn't enough,
the perennially tough as nails defense was torn apart
and put up for sale to any bidder. In fact, most high
priced stars, like Patrick Surtain, were just cut. That
makes for a tough year for the Nick Saban led Dolphins.
If the defense can't keep them in games, there is no
way the Dolphins stumble on a handful of wins, let alone
a win against a solid team from Denver. Ronnie Brown
might find room against an average run defense, but
I can't see enough from the passing game to keep the
Fins within a touchdown. The only question from this
game, who will be the "real", featured back
in Denver? Who will add his name to the 1000-yard back
club? Tatum Bell? Or will it be an old name, Mike Anderson?
This is as easy as it gets. Pick the Broncos in what
has the makings of an old fashion blow out, Firestone-style.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Cincinnati
(-3.5) @ Cleveland - The Browns aren't worth a bet
until Trent Dilfer proves he can still win football
games as the head signal caller. The Browns aren't without
weapons though. Braylon Edwards has shown glimpses of
his future stardom, and Reuben Droughns has proven he
can pile up the yardage. Defense is where the Browns
will struggle. They lost their best corner to the Ravens,
and they have a completely new coaching staff. Dilfer
has never proven he's a winner without a dominant defense
behind him. Things won't change against the steadily
improving Bengals. I'm sure everyone's heard it a thousand
times this preseason, but I'm pretty confident this
will be the year Carson Palmer makes his bid for a Pro
Bowl. He has one of the best young receivers in the
game as his go to guy, Chad Johnson. Rudi Johnson is
as steady as they come, and Marvin Lewis has worked
wonders with an average defense to get them into the
overall top ten a year ago. This year will be even better
for young Bengals. Cinci is a play or two away from
the playoffs. Cleveland is a win or two away from the
number one pick in next years draft. This one, like
the Bronco game, is a no-brainer. Take the Bengals on
the road in a quick stomping of Romeo's first game as
a head coach. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Houston
@ Buffalo (-5.5) - The Buffalo Bills are a popular
pick to win their way into the playoffs this year. If
you haven't heard, this is why. Drew Bledsoe was released,
and JP Losman will take over as the leader of a team
that desperately needed to drop the fat 7th grader who'd
been taking poorly timed sacks and throwing 4th quarter
interceptions for the last year and a half. Losman may
be young and immature compared to Drew, but he could
cartwheel down the field faster than Bledsoe could sprint.
That's not saying JP has the form of a gymnast either.
What You Talking 'Bout Willis McGahee will finally be
fully recovered from his knee injury that kept him out
of football his rookie season. Last year was just a
glimpse of what was to come from the former Hurricane,
this year should make us awe. Buffalo has the best defense
in football. After a preseason scrimmage, Brett Favre
said he hopes they don't play them during the season.
Houston was hoping the same thing. SOL. Houston should
be a good team this year. David Carr has looked poor
throughout the preseason, making people question if
he'll ever have the breakout year everyone has expected.
Dominick Davis is one of the best young backs in the
league, when he's healthy. But he's been a slow starter
since he broke into the league. Look for Houston to
stumble out of the box, allowing the Buffalo defense
to make big plays early. The Texans will fall down early,
never to resurface with the lead. Game Date: 09/11/05
13:00 ET
Tennessee
@ Pittsburgh (-7) - The Steelers might be a bit
overrated a year after their 15-1 regular season record.
But, they're still a good team. 15-1? No. Opening dominance
against the Titans. Indeed. Roethlisburger will get
plenty of chances to find wide open receivers against
a team that lost both of their starting receivers to
"rebuilding-disease". Steve McNair is back
and supposedly better than ever, though he's lost his
favorite receiver and a chunk of why the Titans were
so good the last few years. Derrick Mason has a new
home in Baltimore, and McNair's never had a good on-field
relationship with talented wideout Drew Bennett. I fully
expect the Steeler offensive attack to struggle without
Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley, but Willie Parker will
find holes in a suspect defensive line, and Hines Ward
will show why he deserves the new contract he held-out
for. Big Ben will calm down at the end of the first
half and the Steelers will pull away from the Titans.
A close first half will end closer to a blowout than
anything else. Steelers win big; the Titans get one
game closer to the end of the season. Game Date:
09/11/05 13:00 ET
Chicago
@ Washington (-5.5) - In a real crowd-pleasing
move, the NFL brass has already put together the game
of the year. The Super Bowl hopeful Bears and the strong
and consistent Redskins meet in what could be a real
post season match-up. Yah right! This is anything but
a top-notch contest, but at least Tag's snuck these
two teams into the same game. Good work. The Bears'
season drooled down the drain when Rex Grossman had
an early exit, again. First year pro, Kyle Orton, will
have the reigns in what promises to be everything but
promising. Mushin Muhammad is still a touchdown threat
anywhere in the red-zone, and the tandem of Thomas Jones
and rookie rusher Cedric Benson should be formidable.
Getting to the red-zone, or even the next first down
marker, is going to be the challenge. The Bears have
a solid defense, but not when they've been on the field
for 75% of the game, and they will be. They better be
in good shape. Washington has a tough defense that lost
a little punch with the departure of Fred Smoot. Shawn
Springs' ability to stay healthy, and LaVar Arrington's
come back from a flurry of injuries will make the difference
between a top flight and average defense for the Skins.
Patrick Ramsey, who's looked "ehhhh" this
preseason, and for his entire career for that matter,
will make another attempt at leading the Redskins to
the playoffs. Clinton Portis should be much improved
from his worst year ever. The trade of Larverneus Coles
for Santana Moss won't pay dividends, but that won't
keep Joe Gibbs from trouncing the overmatched Bears
and starting the season with a much-needed win.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New
Orleans @ Carolina (-7) - The Saints still have
the talented group of youngsters they've always had.
Well I guess they're middle-agers now. Either way, everyone
and their brother knows Jim Haslet has himself a set
of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Will the signing
of Dwight Smith, an ex-Buc, give the Saints what the
need to get to the next level? Maybe. Will it help them
beat Carolina in Carolina? Not today Junior. The Panthers
are as good as they've been, even with Pro Bowler Mushin
Muhammad in a Bears uniform. Steve Smith is back, and
opposed to what he says, he's as good and fast as ever.
Steven Davis is back in the backfield with Deshaun Foster,
and they still have that D. Carolina will be swinging
for the fences this year. Julius Peppers might be the
biggest talent in all of football, and Kris Jenkins,
Mike Rucker, ex-Seahawk Ken Lucas, and the rest of the
Panther D will keep opposing teams on lockdown all year
long. Aaron Brooks and all his inconsitency won't be
an exception. Look for Brooks to get hit often on Sunday.
The Saints defense looked dismal against the run all
preseason, and now they have to play the pound it in
your face Panthers on opening day. Talented Saints running
back Deuce McAllister will find some yardage early,
but it won't be enough to keep the Panthers from taking
the game by two touchdowns. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00
ET
Tampa
Bay @ Minnesota (-6) - The Vikings are better
since the departure of Randy Moss. As are the Raiders,
but that's another story. The Vikings can only worry
about the Vikings, and aside from a Whizzenator, the
headlines about the mishaps and screw-ups of Viking
star players has been nil since Moss's departure. One
point for Minnesota. Daunte Culpepper is still the talented
one-man attack he's always been, and always was, even
when Moss was out with injuries for 6 games last year.
All Daunte needed was a defense to hold their end of
the bargain. With the departure of Randy Moss, the Vikings
had enough room on payroll to get the players they needed
to level off that side of the ball. As for the offense,
Daunte still has big play options with Nate Burleson,
Michael Bennett, and rookie blazer Troy Williamson.
I mean "speed" blazer, not "Randy Moss
during the off season" blazer. Plus, the Vikings
always start out 5-0. Tampa Bay finally has the fixings
for a rushing attack with rookie star Carnell Williams
manning the backfield. Brian Griese has shown that he
can be a decent starting quarterback, but can he lead
the Buc's to a winning season and a playoff picture?
Only time will tell. Tampa's defense has always been
stout, and this year will be no different. Some key
loses have brought them down from their pedestal, but
top 10 won't be a stretch. My opening day diagnosis
is this; the Vikings will use their offensive fire power
to pull ahead early. Some big plays from Carnell Williams
will have the Buc's fighting back early in the second
half, but Culpepper will keep the Tampa Bay comeback-excitement
to rest with a vintage-Culpepper bomb to rookie wideout
Troy Williamson. The new and improved Viking D will
step-up and make a big play down the stretch, keeping
the Vikings up 10 as time expires. Take the Vikes in
an exciting game in Minnesota.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Seattle
@ Jacksonville (-3) - Seattle made some good
moves in the off-season, keeping their big three; Shaun
Alexander, Matt Hasslebeck, and Walter Jones. Koren
Robinson and the fiasco that was his career in Seattle
is now over, and the Seahawk brass can go to sleep at
night knowing their star receiver won't be in jail with
a DUI in the morning. Unfortunately for the Seahawks
there is a downside to the absence of Koren Robinson.
Somebody else has to start opposite Jackson. That someone
will be Bobby Engram and a plethora of different names
and faces. If someone or a couple of them step up, watch
out for the Seahawk offensive attack. As for now, I
have to bet the Seattle offense continues to struggle,
and the Jacksonville defense, which is very underrated,
will take advantage of Seattle shortcomings. Byron Leftwich
is going into his third year. He should be better than
ever. Fred Taylor looked healthy in his single preseason
performance, which means good things for the Jags and
their fans. Reggie Williams has looked like the guy
the Jags drafted, instead of the imposter that showed
up last year. This is great for Leftwich, who should
have Jimmy Smith, Williams, Matt Jones, and Taylor to
get the pig to. The Jag's defensive line got some much
needed help when they signed Reggie Hayward in the off
season. The Jaguars are on their way to the playoffs.
They'll start with a tough game at home against a good
Seahawk team, but they should come out on top. Three
points is nothing at home, and the Jags look to be the
better team.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New
York Jets (+3) @ Kansas City - The Jets and the
Chiefs. What a game. This is my pick for game of the
week. Philly-Atlanta should be grand, and Colts-Ravens
will be fun, but no game excites me more than Priest
Holmes running his legs at one of the most improved
teams in the league. This Jets defense just got better
and better last year, and this year will be no different.
Ty Law is now a Jet, and his leadership and shutdown
ability on the corner will give the Jets a huge lift.
Trent Green lost his number one receiver, Jonnie Morton.
But Eddie Kennison will flash his ability as the first
receiver option in Kansas City. But really, everyone
knows Tony Gonzalez is Trents real number one, and he's
wearing red and white. Holmes has one of the most exciting
backups in football, Larry Johnson. He'll get his chances
to make things happen. Will all the new defensive additions
be enough to get the Chiefs to the Super Bowl? Kendrell
Bell, Patrick Surtain, Sammy Knight, and rookie linebacker
Derrick Johnson have a big task ahead of them, because
God knows the Kansas City defense was as bad as any
team in the NFL. Both teams will flash their fury, awing
the masses, and reminding us why we all love football.
In the end one of these great teams has to lose. The
Jets are too steady on both sides of the ball, and the
Chiefs, who've yet to gel into the cohesive defensive
unit that they'll become will fall just short on opening
day. Chad Pennington will be happy to have his old pal,
Coles, back on the field. Curtis Martin, future hall-of-famer
Curtis Martin, will have one of his classic opening
days. Coach Edwards will be all smiles after a powerful
performance against the playoff bound Chiefs. His Jets
will escape Kansas City with a road victory. Game
Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Arizona
(+2.5) @ New York Giants - The Cardinals are getting
plenty of hype this off-season. I don't know if it's
Dennis Green, a great draft, or the abundance of talent
the Cardinals have all over the field, but I like Arizona
to do big things all year on their way to the playoffs.
Weird. I never thought I'd be saying that. I don't think
Kurt Warner will look like the MVP he was in St. Louis,
but I do think he'll look rejuvenated with the talent
he has around him. JJ Arrington has had a tough preseason,
but he'll come around, and in the meantime, the Cards
still have Marcel Shipp and others to contribute. The
Giants might be starting Tim Hasselbeck. If that happens
to be a truth by the time you read this, stop reading
now and make a bet on the Cardinals… If Eli Manning
is still the starter, well, do the same thing. Manning
isn't ready to lead these Giants to the playoffs, or
an opening day win against the much-improved Cardinals.
Tiki Barbar is one of the most underrated backs in the
league, but who knows if and or when his "fumblitis"
will return. Week 1? Plaxico Burress was a number 2
receiver in Pittsburgh. He's being asked to be Eli's
go-to-guy. Will he fold under the pressure? Or will
he step up to his potential? The Giants defense gets
Michael Strahan back, but he won't be enough to keep
the Giants on top in New York. Arizona has too many
weapons in their arsenal, and Kurt Warner is too excited
to snap the towel on the team that sat him down last
year when the playoffs weren't so far away. Eli's first
year as a full time starter will begin with a loss at
home, and an entire week of "How does it feel to
get beat by Kurt?" questions. Good luck Eli! Game
Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
St.
Louis (-6) @ San Francisco - This is the easiest
game of the week. I plan to make all my money right
here. The Rams will slaughter the 49ers. Do I think
the Rams are that good? Not at all, in fact, I think
they'll be lucky to be 9-7 this year. But I'll tell
you one thing I'm sure of; two of those wins will come
from games against San Francisco. Tim Rattay will be
starting for the 49ers, which has never seemed to workout
for the club. Things won't change. Steven Jackson is
too good for the Niner defense to stop, hell, so is
Marshal Faulk, or maybe even Marsha Brady? This game
will be good for a few good highlights though, so it
might be worth a check-in from time to time. "Bulger
deep to Holt," "Bulger long to Bruce,"
"Bulger with a deep interception," "Steven
Jackson 60 yards down the right side." Something
along those lines. Notice, there is no 49er scoring
involved in those highlights. Don't be amazed if that
actually happens. Rams huge, think 35-3. Game Date:
09/11/05 14:15 ET
Green
Bay @ Detroit (-3) - I never thought I'd see
the day Detroit was favored against Green Bay. Now I
can't believe the Lions are only favored by 3 in Detroit.
Everyone knows the Lions play good ball at home, and
everyone also knows that you can't have a good team
with a terrible defense and a shoddy offensive line.
The Pack has both. The Pack also has Brett Favre. This
is both good and bad. He's going to throw touchdowns…
and interceptions. This year could be the year Brett
ends up on the south end of .500. What a way to go out.
Ahman Green has looked miserable rushing behind the
makeshift line in 'Sconsin. Brett has had both good
and bad games in the preseason, but who cares right,
that was preseason. Detroit has been happy with Joey
Harrington's performance this preseason, and they better
be, because Jeff Garcia is out for the year with a broken
chicken leg. So much for a quarterback controversy.
Harrington will actually have to try to do poorly to
keep the Lions out of games. All over the field Detroit
has playmakers. Jumpballs might be one of the Lion's
biggest weapons. Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charlie
Rogers, Kevin Jones… my God, just throw the damn
ball down field, see what happens. Those 4 guys would
kill in a 4x100 relay. They'll win this game, too. Take
the Lions in a high scoring event. Game Date: 09/11/05
14:15 ET
Dallas
@ San Diego (-4.5) - San Diego is without their
biggest receiving threat, tight end Antonio Gates. He's
suspended for the first game because of his little holdout.
That was a good move. Idiots. Anyway, even without Gates,
the Chargers still have the upper hand. Ladainian Tomlinson
is the best the NFL has to offer, and Drew Brees hasn't
seemed to have lost the magic he pulled out of his helmet
a year ago. Keenan McCardell has had an entire off season
to learn the Charger offense, which should add to his
effectiveness. Reche Caldwell is back after an injury
cost him most of his third year. He was in the process
of breaking out before he went out broken. Look for
him to be a bigger part of the offensive attack in San
Diego this year. Even with the good draft, and big off-season,
I don't think the Dallas Cowboys will come out victorious
in this one. Drew Bledsoe has gotten mixed reviews during
the preseason. Figure that, Drew Bledsoe, inconsistent.
Wow! Dallas went out and bought offensive line help,
which should add to Drew effectiveness. Unfortunately,
they didn't go out and get Drew some legs or a brain.
Drew will still hold the ball too long and get sacked
because he's about as mobile as an upside down turtle.
And he'll definitely still throw into double coverage…
interception! I can't wait to see the blank stare on
Parcells face the first time Drew sends a beautiful
spiral to Quentin Jammer (Charger cornerback). The Chargers
defense was young last year. Another year under their
belt has only made them better. Look for Drew Brees
and company to light up the overrated Dallas defense,
eliciting laughter from me, and a look of horror on
Bill's face as his Cowboys fall short in the season
opener. Game Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Indianapolis
@ Baltimore (+3) - This is one of the better
games of the day. Will the Colts number one ranked secondary
be able to stop the talented signal caller, Kyle Boller?
What can I say? That lines a load of BS. The Colts secondary,
right near the bottom of the league, is depleted, and
injury ridden. Kyle Boller is… bad. But he has
too many weapons and coaching specialists to fail. And
if anyone can keep Peyton Manning and the Colts from
scoring a ton of points, it has to be Ray Lewis and
his group of trusty steeds. Right? If Jamal Lewis can
step in and play like he can, the Ravens will upset
the Super Bowl favored Colts in Baltimore. Even Kyle
Boller should be able to light up the Colts secondary.
Baltimore might have the best defensive players one
team has ever had. Samarri Rolle is great, in fact,
every single one of their defensive backs is fantastic.
Their fourth guy is Neon Deion. How much better can
it get? Look for the Ravens to take the Colts in this
opener. It isn't the popular pick, but it's the right
one. Manning will be limited to a couple touchdown passes,
and one too many interceptions. Boller will look good,
which might be the last time all year, leading his team
to an opening day victory. Or should I say riding their
defense to victory? Either way, Ravens win. Game
Date: 09/11/05 20:30 ET
Philadelphia
(-1) @ Atlanta - This is a great Monday night opener.
Philly has been picked by just about everyone to repeat
as NFC Champions, and I'm not one to argue. Their defense
is back in full force. Donovan McNabb and TO looked
to be on the same page in their lone preseason game.
Brian Westbrook is very underrated. He's a great speedy
back who can catch passes and do just about everything
you can ask from a guy. Donovan McNabb hasn't gotten
nearly enough credit for what he's become in such a
short time. He's Philly's MVP, bar none. Philly's defense
took a big hit when Corey Simon was released last week,
but they don't seem to be worried about it, so you shouldn't
either. Mike Vick has played very little snaps in the
preseason, but he looked good. He has improved as a
pocket passer, which unfortunately, the Falcons want
him to be. The Eagles defense is too good to let Vick
pick them apart from the pocket. Look for more interceptions
than touchdowns from Vick. Michael Jenkins and Roddy
White as starting receivers? I don't know if I'm as
excited as Mike sounds in interviews. Warrick Dunn and
TJ Duckett will help keep the Falcons on the top of
team rushing, and both should find a little room against
an average run stuffing D. But that won't be enough.
This should be a good game featuring two playoff bound
ball clubs, but the Eagles will show their NFC superiority
late, getting the win by a touchdown or two. Take the
Eagles, because that's what I'd do.
Game
Date: 09/12/04 21:00 ET
Well
folks there you have it, my picks for week one. Make
sure you come back to check out Lucky Lester's picks
for week two of what should turn out to be an excellent
football season.
WAGERING
SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
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Luck with your NFL Football Betting!
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