NFL Season Preview 2005 (No Repeat Performance)

The season is fast approaching go time. Up and down the conferences all I can see is hope. Pre-injury and pre-losing streak, each team thinks they can win. Let me tell you, I'm with them. Well, most of them (sorry San Fran, Chicago, Fins, Brownies). All over the sheets I have improvements, meaningful re-signings, and draft help. I've been watching glimpses of greatness all throughout the preseason. Soon (September 8th) we'll get to see the real deal. Until then, I've got some insight on how the season might just turn out. Want a hint? Don't count on repeat performances from too many teams. I wouldn't be surprised if the NFL had more than one worst to first, and there'll be a plethora of playoff teams that finished the season early a year ago. Here we go, 'hope you ate your Wheaties.

AFC

East - Don't be baffled when the mighty Patriots take a tumble off their great wall. Injuries, retirements, a depleted coaching staff, and broken chemistry are just a few reasons why their stumble to mediocrity shouldn't surprise. But it will. When the Pats are batting .500 halfway through the season, everyone and their brother will be talking about how they might not make the playoffs, and how stunned they are because of it. I'll be the guy with the shit poked grin on his face, laughing I told you so. Am I saying they won't make the playoffs? I guarantee that, but I am saying they won't come out of this division with the best record. Leave that job to the Jets. The Jets have made the right moves to get them over the top, and this is the year. The big wigs in New York got together and played their off season cards just right. Coles is back with Pennington. Both will return to the greatness they were destined for before the split. Ty Law will resurrect himself as the best big game corner in the land, in the process bringing a young and talented Jets defense to his level. Don't count out the Bills either. Buffalo might have a first year hurler, but he's no slouch. JP Losman had ample opportunity to learn what not to do by watching Drew Bledsoe take snaps and throw interceptions every game last year. He'll be an addition to a fast improving squad. The Dolphins live in the cellar, but don't be surprised if Nick Saban pulls a rabbit out from a helmet or two. Whoever loses to the Dolphins will not make it out of the East.

North - Both the Bengals and the Ravens will give the Steelers more problems than they mustered a year ago, but unlike the Patriots, I expect the Steel Show to come out on top of the North. It won't be the 15-1 ease they had last fall, but they'll make it. Big Ben will be solid in his second season. The Bus will be back for his last go, and he won't leave anyone questioning his skills, or his heart. The loss of Plaxico won't have the impact many are predicting; he's no Hines Ward. Randel El and Wilson will team up to make a dent in Plaxico's touchdown production, and rookie Heath Miller will play a roll in Roethlisberger's red zone numbers. All being said, the defense won't be as stout as it was during last years run. This will bring Cowher's boys back to reality. The Ravens will make their bid for a playoff year and maybe even a North Division title. There is no team with a more improved passing attack than the Ravens. This will be Boller's last shot. If he can't make this machine to work, he'll have to get another job. Derrick Mason has been one of the most underrated receivers over the last three years. Steve McNair will miss him desperately in Tennessee. Mark Clayton will do exactly what Baltimore drafted him to do, catch everything that comes his way. Jamal Lewis could be the deciding factor in the Ravens post-season hopes. If Jamal starts every game for the Ravens, I predict Baltimore wins the division. The Bengals aren't too far behind either of the top two teams in this division. Their defense will be much improved, and Carson Palmer has another year under his belt. That means big things and big numbers for the Bengal offense. Look for Rudi to get more room to roam on Sundays. The Browns cut all the crap off of their team, so yes; they'll struggle to win games this year. But they won't be a pushover. They have a solid running attack, and Trent Dilfer won't make mistakes to lose games. Six or Seven wins wouldn't surprise me. Not bad for a rebuilding year.

South - The Colts will be the top team in the AFC. Their defense should be better than ever with a jumble of good athletes manning the secondary. Speaking of manning, Peyton Manning still runs the show in Indy, meaning their offense will be amongst the leagues best again. Marvin Harrison will come back from his down year and once again surpass the 100-catch plateau. Edgerrin James will have his best year as a pro. Without much depth on the defensive line, the Colts will once again take part in more than a few offensive spectaculars. Don't be surprised if they get caught off guard by a few good defensive teams (like the Jags) making them feel human once again. Those Jags should be improved as well. Byron Leftwich has all the talent to succeed, and now he has an offense that uses his abilities to throw accurately down field. Fred Taylor will surprise the world this year by playing a great role in all 16 games. If this prediction holds true, there is no question in my mind that the Jaguars hop, skip, and jump right in to the playoffs. If Taylor's body crumbles again, don't blink, because the Texans will flash to second place in this division. David Carr is a solid signal caller, and his young offensive line will finally do what they need to do to protect their maturing leader. Davis will be the consistent ground attack he's always been, and Andre Johnson will become one of the best receivers in the game. Defensive signings should pan out, making this division extremely tough. Steve McNair appears to be as healthy and fast as ever. Good. 'Cause he'll need some quicks to elude the pressure he'll be facing early on. Don't think for a second that I'm crapping on the Titans chances. If any team in this league overlooks Tennessee they'll pay the price. If young guns can step in to big roles early, this team could surprise some folks.

West - The Chargers will make a play at repeating their West Division title, but they'll get outmaneuvered by the much improved Chief defensive unit. Everyone in the league knows the Chiefs possess the most consistent offense in the league, but this year their defense will follow. A Surtain secondary will be a much better unit. Sammy Knight and Kendrell Bell will shore up a unit that needed to get better fast. Priest Holmes will dominate the show as long as he's on the field, and Trent Green will produce just enough to get the Chiefs to the top spot in the West. The Chargers will have to deal with a constant competition between Drew Brees (proven) and Phillip Rivers (not) all year long. This will be just enough to allow the Chiefs to speed by them on their way to the top. Brees will eventually put all those questions to rest by outperforming his stats from a year ago, leading Ladainian Tomlinson and the rest of the Chargers back to the playoffs. This will be the second year two teams come from the West. The Broncos' defense will play better this year, but their offense will struggle enough to keep Denver around .500 and just out of a playoff spot. Jake Plummer won't have as many interceptions as he did last year, but the running game won't be there to correct his mistakes. Will this be the first year in forever the Broncos' running game doesn't possess a 1000-yard back? The Raiders will be much better on both sides of the ball, but then again how could they not be? Lamont Jordan and Randy Moss will both live up to their preseason hype, but will it be enough to get them where they want to be? No. The Chargers and Chiefs will be too good for Oakland. Kerry Collins will have real nice numbers, but he'll make too many crucial mistakes early on and more importantly, down the stretch.

Lucky's Crazy Predictions

AFC Conference Champs: Jets, Steelers, Colts, Chiefs
AFC Wild Cards: Chargers, Jaguars
Just Out: Patriots, Ravens, Raiders, Texans

NFC

East - The Eagles should once again rule this division. Injuries and a mouthy wide receiver could cost the Eagles a game or two, but even then they'll finish 11-5, easily taking the East. McNabb is underrated for what he does for his team, and Brian Westbrook might be the most important bullet in Donovan's arsenal. The Eagle defense can only be better than the fine performance they had a year ago. Their corners have another year on their resume, which is essential because they were so young last year. Javon Kearse is a freak. Brian Dawkins is the best safety in the league. The Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins should all be within a game or two from their records last year. So at best they'll be 8-8. The Giants will struggle with Eli Manning at the helm, especially if he's injured often like he is right now. Tiki Barbar might have flashbacks to his days of too many fumbles and really cause the Giants some concern. The Cowboys have the best chance to be the other team that makes it out of this division, but the addition of Molasses Man, Drew Bledsoe, will backfire when Tony Romo takes his starting spot. The Dallas defense should be much improved, though they'll still find a way to make the big error. Either way, mistakes will find the Cowboys too often to get them to the post season. The Redskins should have plenty of chances to stay in games with one of the best defenses in football. I'm worried about LaVar Arrington, because he's been all humble, saying stuff like, "Maybe I am washed up," and other cautionary quotes. My guess, he'll tear it up. Unfortunately for the people in the Nations capital, the Hogs will stumble under the leadership of Patrick Ramsey. Many will try to give up on Patrick, but he's still the best option Washington has. Santana Moss won't have a good year in Washington, but Clinton Portis will be better in his second season with the team. When all is said and done, one real good record and three sub par seasons will emerge from the East.

North - This is the year the Minnesota Vikings finally play well for more than 3/4 of the season. Each and every year the Vikes seem to piss all over their opponents. But over a long period of time, the toilet gets dirty, and they never have the audacity to get out the little scrubber under the sink and clean their toilet. The water gets murky, and soon they have no idea what happened to their 6-0 start. This year they won't end 8-8; in fact they'll trounce this division with an Eagle-like record. Daunte Culpepper will prove why he is and always was the most valuable player in Minnesota. Mike Tice will keep his job, and maybe, just maybe, he won't have the chance to scalp his Super Bowl tickets this year, because he'll be on the sideline. The Packers will just miss the playoffs in what will be Brett's final year. I'd say they end up 9-7. Brett's good for 9 wins, but without a defense and a makeshift offensive line, the Packers hopes for a frozen tundra post season seem out of the question. The Lions are at least as good as the Packers, but they don't possess a Brett Favre on their lineup. They do, however, own the rights to oodles of offensive weaponry. Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Charlie Rogers, and Kevin Jones will do big things on their way to a season where they end up over .500 for the first time in a long while. Joey Harrington might just follow the new "fourth year plan" laid out by Drew Brees last year. If Mariucci can get Joey to save himself from interceptions, the Lions might creep into the playoff picture. The Bears season was over when they drafted another running back when they needed much, much more. Then as if that wasn't enough, Rex Grossman was injured again... and once again, he's out for the season. If you're telling me Chad Hutchinson will emerge as a good enough starting quarterback to lead the Bears into the promise land, you must be on crack. Jeff Blake could end up starting in Chicago, but even then, Chicago's hope for post-season football is way out of the question.

South - The Falcons will struggle if they try to keep Mike Vick tossing rockets from the pocket. That's not his bag. I'm a strong believer in allowing amazing athletes to do what they do best, and God knows his biggest asset isn't his precision passing. Just play the Falcons on Madden 2006. On the other hand, Mike will be Vick enough to send his Falcons into the playoffs as a wild card team. Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett are too good as thunder and lightning, and the Falcon defense should be improved with maturing second year players like DeAngelo Hall and a few decent off season signees. The South Division Champs will be the Panthers. Deshaun Foster will finally play more than 10 games, showing the NFL how good he can be. Jake Dehomme has his favorite target back in Steve Smith. On the other side of the ball, Carolina has the best defense in the league. New addition Ken Lucas is as good as it gets at defending the pass and the run, and with Kris Jenkins back, and Julius Peppers on the field, this Carolina team looks to bum rush this division. The Saints have infinite upside, but they've yet to prove themselves. Last year they made a huge push late to end 8-8, and just out of the playoffs. Weird. Story of Jim Haslett's life. Aaron Brooks is still riddled by his own inconsistency, but a healthy and confident Deuce McAllister will keep the Saints in the race. Unfortunately, a late season slump might end the chances of this team that will be thinking playoffs all year long. Haslett is one hell of a coach, though, and if anyone can get these guys to finally realize their own potential, its him. The Buccaneers should be better if Brian Griese plays the full year. If Carnell Williams lands on his feet early, this could make for a very competitive division. Chucky has his boys primed for a breakout season after two seasons falling in the sub par category. Tampa's defense will be forever stingy, but the loss of Dwight Smith might hurt more than they anticipated.

West - The Seahawks won't repeat their West Division Title. They'll be right up there, and I think they'll make a place for themselves in the playoffs, but the mighty Cardinals will dethrone them. Okay, maybe the Cardinal isn't such a mighty mascot, but Dennis Green has his team ready to take over the weak West. This is only Greens second year in Arizona, and already he's done enough damage to turn a perennial 4-win team into a playoff player. Green always has done well with old school quarterbacks whom everyone else touted as "washed up," (see Randall Cunningham and Jeff George amongst others). This time around is no different. Kurt Warner was on his way to leading the Giants into the post season until he got pulled for youngster Eli Manning. This year, there's no youngster biting at the bit, and there's plenty of receiving options for Kurt to work with. Rookie JJ Arrington might have the best rookie season of all the running backs. Look for the Cardinal D to do just enough to keep them in games, which their offense will win. The Hawks signed all three of their key guys, and their wide receivers are actually pretty good. Young and inexperienced, but good. If the Seahawks would've kept Chad Brown around I'd give them the nod over the Cards, but they wouldn't take that chance on a guy that's been injured since he got to Seattle. I can't say I blame them, but I can say it'll hurt them. When Chad Brown plays like a soldier all year with the Patriots, all of football will be laughing at the linebacker-less Hawks. Hasselbeck will play up to his '03 potential, and Shaun Alexander will duck and dodge his way toward the rushing title and a grip of touchdowns. The Hawks won't be hurt by the departure of Ken Lucas because they picked up Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon... both are young and extremely talented. The Rams will slip out of contention if Mike Martz continues to misuse his running backs, and he will. Steven Jackson needs to get the piggy 25 times a game for the hornless rams to have a chance. Instead Martz will show his impatience for a balanced attack and hurl deep ball after deep ball into the eye of the opposing defenses storm. Bulger gets 22 touchdowns and almost as many picks, and the Rams stumble under .500. The 49ers are terrible. Kevan Barlow should have a better season with a better offensive line in front of him. If Julian Peterson can stay healthy, the Niners might have a few good defensive plays throughout the year, maybe even a highlight or two on Sports Center where they are the team being highlighted? Who knows? As for their record... Worst in football, bar none.

Lucky's Crazy Predictions

NFC Conference Champs: Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, Cardinals
NFC Wild Cards: Seahawks, Falcons
Just Out: Packers, Lions, Rams, Saints

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