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Poker Strategy - Dynamic
Hand Value
I have received a lot of questions
regarding this topic, so I am going to dedicate
an entire article to it. Most advanced players
know that Sklansky hand rankings (or my hand rankings
for that matter) are not set in stone but are
rather general guidelines for ranking hands. This
is because hand value fluctuates greatly depending
on the number of people in the pot. Many people
are not quite sure how to treat their starting
hands when the game's dynamic fluctuates between
loose/tight and thus affecting the number of people
in the pot. The answer to this dilemma lies with
what type of hand you hold, and how many players
this type of hand is suitable against.
I am going to divide the types
of hands into three categories: Large pairs (JJ
or higher), Big cards (two cards of JQKA), and
small pairs/suited connectors (I know they are
totally different but I am going to treat them
the same here, you'll see why). Most of this is
written assuming the game is in a longhand/limit
context.
Large Pairs
These are 'premium' hands that
people hope to receive. They have a lot of value
in of themselves and are not board-dependent to
win. People generally raise preflop with these
hands for value, but often a major reason to raise
preflop is just to knock people out. For example,
consider KK. Unless an ace hits the board, KK
will probably be the best hand at the flop. However,
if the board is Q102 and someone has QJ and someone
else has AK, they will be tempted to draw to see
another card. If you make this more complicated
and make the Q2 suited, someone with two cards
of that same suit will be drawing as well. All
of the sudden, you face a situation where there
are about 16 outs (depending what the suited cards
are) against you. Now, while you still have the
highest chance out of anyone to win the pot, it
is more likely that someone else will win the
pot isntead of you!
This is a common situation with
large pairs, where they are the best hand at the
flop but there is enough runners out there that
one of them is bound to beat you at the river.
Thus, the way to alleviate this situation is to
knock these people out of the flop by making raises
aimed at limiting the size of the pot. Reraise
people after they raised you to make it expensive
to see the pot and raise at the flop to knock
people out. For example, in the above situation,
if you were in early position and there were 5
people at the flop, you should consider check
at the flop in the hopes to check-raise to knock
the people between you and the original better
out. That way, people with 5 outs or less won't
be in the pot against you and you have to worry
less about longshot draws beating you. Another
tip that applies to a loose game is to perhaps
not raise too much preflop. For example, if you
are in late position now and someone raised and
4 people cold called the raise, do not reraise
because all you are doing is beefing up the pot
and giving people an incentive to chase even more.
Thus, aim your raises to limit the size of the
pot and increase your chances of winning.
Big Cards
Big cards like AK/AQ/KQ are
great for shorthanded games, but often a curse
in longhanded games. While big cards can at least
be an overpair and win money from someone whose
hand won't likely improve (such as top pair/top
kicker), these hands are the ones that make top
pair/top kicker. Thus, when you hit the board
with these hands, unless you are outkicking your
opponent or your opponent is an idiot, he or she
will generally be on a draw against you. Thus,
you generally want to go ahead and take the pot
down at the flop, or at least make it very expensive
for your opponent to see the turn.
Small/Medium pairs and Suited
Connectors.
These hands change drastically
in value depending on the situation. Assuming
a non heads up situation (where small pairs do
well simply do the chance of your opponent not
hitting anything), these are hands you want to
play in a multiway pot. You generally won't hit
much with these hands, or you will hit a very
nice hand like a three of a kind, flush, or straight.
The overreaching goal with these hands is to have
pot odds in your favor. (Note: Axs plays a lot
like a suited connector.)
If you have a suited connector,
you are hoping there are enough callers and dead
money in the pot to justify drawing to the straight
or flush. Pot odds is why these hands will show
a profit with four or more people in the pot,
but will generally be poor against two or three
opponents. In a multiway pot with a suited connector,
you may have a flush or straight draw (that will
win if you hit) but only must put in 1/10 of the
pot to see the next card, which is very good odds.
If you have a small pair, you
are hoping for the 13% chance of hitting a set
on the flop. So if 7 people are in the pot, you
have the exact pot odds for a set. However, for
small pairs, not only are the pot odds good for
a set, the implied odds once you hit your set
are great. If you hit your set, chances are good
that someone will have a second best hand that
has a slim to none chance of being you (for example
if you have 33, and flop is KJ3, there's a good
chance someone will pay you off with a K or maybe
even a J). So small pairs really begin showing
their profit potential with around 5 or more people
in the pot.
A common response to the small
pair strategy is "How should I evaluate the
set potential of large pairs." After all,
I talk about how the implied odds once you hit
a set are generally great. Unfortunately, this
does not apply to large pairs. If you hit a set
with a large pair, there's a good chance it will
be top set (meaning there's no cards on the board
that are higher than that), so you won't get much
action from anything besides draws. After all,
if you have AA and the flop is (AJ5), there's
only so much action you can get from a hand like
KJ.
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